By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Electorate of the country has been tossing Congress up and down for quite some time, and the trend is more pronounced in the last one and half year ever since Karnataka elections in May 2023 when people brought the Congress with overwhelming majority throwing the BJP out of power. During this period mood swing of the electorate has been witnessed almost every six months across the country, more particularly for or against the Congress. Setbacks in November 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, in Haryana election in October 2024, and now in Maharashtra election in November 2024 have clearly shown that the Congress has critical tasks ahead if it wants to take on BJP in the forthcoming elections across the country.
Congress will have to understand the electoral trends and the mood swing among the voters who support and reject the party in quick succession –which we see in elections held within six months. The same voters who very enthusiastically voted for Congress candidates in Lok Sabha election in May 2024 showing their disgust for the BJP and its allies – such as in Haryana and in Maharashtra, voted in favour of BJP and allies in elections held only few months later in October and November showing their rejection for Congress and its allies in INDIA bloc. It is a very surprising pattern, which prima facie shows that the votes now can’t be taken for granted by any party or combination.
Congress in this situation has greater stake than any other political party in opposition, since it is the largest opposition party against the ruling BJP at the Centre. Congress is really in need of deeply understanding the current electoral trends that show propensity to change its mood within a very short span of few months, ultimately impacting the electoral fortune of the party.
More importantly, the last one and half-year has shown great divergence in voting patter which varied region to region, and from one demographic background to the other. Congress will need not only a deep understanding of the pattern but also the reasons of the fast-changing behaviour of the electorate.
Congress needs to analyse the loss in the first place, and then to identify the reason of the loss or where it underperformed. Apart from analysing the loss, it needs to introspect, identify the strategic errors the party has made in terms of formulating its campaign, candidate selection, seat sharing with the alliances, and flaws in clearly messaging to the electorates as to what exactly the Congress leadership wants to do.
The setbacks to the Congress party in all the recent elections need also an evaluation, since by and large the loss has been attributed to the local and regional leaders who were found indulging in groupism, and showing a divided house. Moreover, their behaviour was seen as if they have only self-interest. Therefore, the party has a greater task in hand to assess the effectiveness and credibility of its regional and local leaders. This assessment may be used in rebuilding the organisational network from the grassroots which is the need of the hour for the party.
It is already well known that Congress has lost its vertical leadership up to the booth level committees, that it had once accomplished. Rebuilding the local network – such as district, block, and panchayat level committees is of paramount importance, since no state level or national level committees could bring the voters to the voting centres.
Local networks can be strengthened only by engaging workers, and rejuvenating the rank and file by fostering inclusivity as well as addressing the internal grievances as and when arises. Leaving them unheard for years by the higher level leadership has a cost, that is to be paid in the form of groupism and infighting, that surfaces at its worst during the elections impacting the electoral fortune of the party.
Horizontal leadership has its drawbacks. When all are commanders and there are no army or only a handful of army, the battle becomes tough, as the Congress has been suffering since the time of Mrs Indira Gandhi. Congress leadership must change it and delegate greater authority vertically from top at the national level to the booth level. During the elections, the party needs some localised strategies to capitalise on the national strategy and policies decided on the national level.
General grievance within the Congress is that merit is less promoted and the sycophancy grows fast, from the lowest level to the highest level. This grievances need to be urgently addressed. Revamping leadership – both horizontally and vertically, needs considerable level of clarity so that leadership ambiguities are resolved in time when several power center within the party emerges. The leadership must resonate with the voters aspirations. Old and green shoulders both are necessary in the party to infuse new ideas and greater balance in approach towards the organisation and its policies.
The last few elections showed that Congress needs to work hard for strategic alliances. Forging meaningful coalition with regional parties have paid everywhere, and wherever there were differences among the regional Congress leadership and the leadership of the regional parties, Congress performed very badly. Congress needs to maintain ideological clarity in forging any meaningful and successful coalition. State and Central Congress leadership should not be heard harping on different notes.
Communication outreach of the Congress seems to be weak. It will have to develop a coherent narrative on national and regional issues while avoiding contradictions. If such issue arises, the party must not keep mum but voice clear principled stand. Voters do not like suspense or confusion. Digital and social media presence needs to be considerably strengthened to match the BJP’s digital platforms. Organising yatras, rallies, public meeting, and rebuilding image of the party is need of the hour.
Apart from principled stand on several issues confronting the nation, Congress needs to showcase its own governance model where it rules in states. The party leadership must critically analyse the government policies, the omission and commission of the ruling BJP, and present and alternative before the people in a language that they can understand without any confusion. Issues need to be prioritised with hunger, health, education at the top. Unemployment, inflation, price rise, and inequality must be refocused with greater vigour. Demographically it should identify and work among the groups who are still not die-hard supporters of BJP.
The party must always be in preparation mode for future elections. Region-specific and action-oriented policies should be ready well in advance apart from the general national and state level policies. Voters in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand have clearly shown their local and regional preference over the nation issues. Congress badly needs an effective finetuned national narrative to match the BJP’s challenge. (IPA Service)
