Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Morgan Stanley has adjusted its Brent crude price projection for the second half of 2025 to $70 per barrel, citing OPEC+ production decisions and broader supply-demand dynamics. This revision reflects cautious optimism about the market’s ability to stabilize amid shifts in global oil supply, rising alternative energy adoption, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
The OPEC+ coalition has opted to gradually unwind its voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day starting from December, aiming to maintain price stability while balancing market cohesion. Analysts suggest this calculated strategy seeks to mitigate downward pressure on oil prices caused by oversupply fears and demand uncertainties. The move follows deliberations among key producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, with a long-term focus on discipline among non-OPEC+ suppliers.
Despite these measures, bearish market conditions persist. Morgan Stanley’s forecast aligns with broader trends suggesting that crude oil prices may face headwinds from an anticipated supply surplus of approximately 700,000 barrels per day by 2025. This surplus, driven by production expansions in regions such as the Americas, has tempered earlier bullish outlooks. Brazil, Guyana, and the United States are expected to collectively contribute over one million barrels per day to global output growth in the coming years.
Demand-side challenges also weigh heavily on the outlook. A slower-than-expected recovery in China’s oil consumption, attributed to rapid electric vehicle adoption and the rise of LNG-powered trucking, has raised concerns about long-term demand stagnation. Bank of America analysts have echoed this sentiment, projecting subdued growth in China’s oil usage as one of the factors leading to a potential market oversupply.
Middle Eastern tensions and disruptions to Libyan crude exports have added complexity to the short-term landscape. However, analysts anticipate these issues to have a limited impact on long-term pricing due to ongoing diplomatic efforts and the likelihood of resumed production in Libya. As such, markets remain focused on structural shifts, including the increasing role of alternative energy sources and changes in transportation fuel demand.
Also published on Medium.
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