Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit India at the time of his visit to the BRICS summit at Kazan in Russia in October this year. This was immediately accepted by President Putin and in the last six weeks since the Kazan conclave on October 22-23 this year, the Russian foreign ministry came out officially twice with the statement about the Russian President’s India visit and why this was very significant for the boosting of bilateral relations.
Interestingly, no dates were mentioned as Indian officials have so far not indicated probable dates for the visit. Generally Putin’s visits are slotted in November/December. Questions are being raised- Is the Indian side ready for welcoming President Putin in Delhi by December end or the dates may be fixed sometime next year. This time, the Putin visit is not so normal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to take into account some after effects from the side of Trump 2 administration which takes over on January 20, 2025.
For President Putin, the visit to India in the coming days is being viewed as a big diplomatic triumph in the context of the Ukraine war which is continuing since February 24, 2022. International Criminal Court (ICC) has declared President Putin as a war criminal and there is a arrest warrant against him. He did not even attend the BRICS and G-20 summits held in friendly countries like South Africa and Brazil though the Presidents of both the countries were ready to welcome President Putin despite being ICC signatories.
India is not a signatory to the ICC statute so are United States, China, Russia and Israel. That way India has no ICC obligation relating to President Putin. But the PMO and external ministry officials know that Trump.2 administration will be different compared to outgoing president Joe Biden. Trump officials will be stricter in dealing with India’s closer bilateral relations with Russia if that affects the American policies as viewed by Trump for South Asia. In fact, the latest interview by Trump’s trusted adviser on South Asia Lisa Curtis to an Indian news agency in Washington focuses on how the Trump.2 administration will look at India’s relations with Russia.
This writer had a long meeting with Lisa Curtis in Washington in 2006 when George Bush junior was the President and the India-US nuclear power deal was under discussion. Lisa is considered as an expert on India. She was working for the right wing think tank Heritage Foundation then and advising the Republican regime on South Asia. She worked as adviser on South Asia to Trump in his first term and is very likely to get a higher position in Trump 2.0 administration. Indian foreign ministry people closely monitor her comments on India because those indicate the coming trends.
Lisa is emphatic that the new Trump administration is keen to reduce Indian dependence on Russia for arms and equipment import. She is firm that Russia can never be a reliable partner for India moving forward since Russia is now internationally isolated due to its invasion of Ukraine but at the same time, taking into account the sensibility of the issue to India, she says that the new Trump administration will deal with this issue quietly, discreetly without making this difference in approach on Russian a big issue in India- US relations.
The hint is clear. As Lisa explained earlier, Trump is a transactionalist. He believes in direct deals. So the American signal is that India has to cut its imports from Russia, both in terms of defence equipment and oil, and then , the U.S. can work on some ways to compensate that but the primary objective is to put India’s relations with Russia on a severe test.
Significantly here, Trump .2 administration is playing the China card to lure Narendra Modi to take the position of reducing Indian dependence on Russian defence equipment and oil. QUAD started during Trump’s first term. The US officials had no problem bringing India to the QUAD fold at that time emphasizing on the security of India-Pacific nations against China. Our Prime Minister is vulnerable to China threat issue. The Trump advisers are fully aware of that.
So Lisa Curtis makes it clear in ambiguous terms ‘ the priority this time needs to be on the security partnership between the two countries. She says ‘ ‘ This is an area where the interests of both sides converge. Both the United States and India have a lot of concerns when it comes to China, such as attempts to dominate the technology market and efforts to be the hegemon in Asia. Neither India, nor the United States want that to happen. So they have a deep mutual interest in cooperation’.
The China focus is all the more evident when Lisa Curtis says both India and the U.S. could never enter an alliance but develop a partnership that is ‘short of an alliance’. This cooperation is based on joint moves by the two countries deterring China. This type of cooperation also prepares both countries in case of a crisis or conflict, be it the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or another flare up on India- China border.
So the Trump.2 regime’s India policy means associating India in the US administration’s global policy against China covering both high technology and security. There has to be full allegiance to Trump on behalf of Narendra Modi to the China strategy and if that happens, Trump may agree to give some relief to India in terms of tariffs on Indian exports and in some other small issues. There is no hanky panky in Trump.2 regime’s views. It is a clear deal. The choice has been made clear before the Indian Prime Minister whom Trump calls a very good friend. Now Indian Prime Minister has to decide on his response. (IPA Service)
