By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Congress is well set to win majority of the 14 Karnataka Lok Sabha seats that are scheduled for poll in the second phase of Lok Sabha election on April 26. . For the BJP, the campaigning in this southern state is showing acute factionalism and open fighting among the senior leaders. As against this, the Congress is solidly united under the dual leadership of the chief minister and the deputy chief minister.
As many as in 8 Lok Sabha constituencies, INC has clear edge – which are Chitradurga, Mandya, Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore Central, Chikkballapur, and Kolar. Out of these, six seats were won by the BJP in the Lok Sabha election 2019, but the party seems to be running a risk to lose many this time. Mandya seat was won by an Independent, while Bangalore Rural was won by INC.
It should be recalled that BJP had won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and bagged 51.75 per cent of votes. INC had won only 1 seat, but was able to gain 32.11 per cent of votes. JD(S) had won 1 seat and gained 9.74 per cent of votes while one seat was won by an independent. However, in the May 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, INC performed well and threw BJP out of power in the state. Congress was able to increase its vote share to 42.88 per cent while BJP’s vote share considerably declined to 36 per cent. The situation for BJP has not improved since. BJP is divided in the state in groups and there are much infightings. Making allies with JD(U) has some benefit for the party, but overall situation on the ground has turned against NDA.
BJP seems to be stronger in Udupi Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Tumkur, Bangalore North, and Bangalore South, while its ally JD(S)has an upper hand in Hassan. JD(S) is also contesting Mandya and Kolar, but its position is weak in both the constituencies.
Udupi Chikmagalur Lok Sabha constituency was won by BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election by defeating JD(S) by a huge margin of 3,49,599 votes. Even though both are contesting together as NDA allies, the latest political shift does not support them. There are eight Vidhan Sabha constituencies in the Lok Sabha constituency. In four of them are BJP’s sitting MLAs while the other four are held by INC. Obviously, JD(S) has already lost its majority of support base. There is very close contest between INC and BJP candidates.
Hassan seat was won by JD(S) in 2019 by defeating BJP. As NDA ally, JD(S) has a good chance of winning this seat, since political situation has not much changed in favour of INC. Out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, JD(S) holds 4, and BJP 2.
BJP had won the Dakshina Kannada Lok Sabha seat in 2019 by defeating INC by a huge margin of 2,74,621 votes. BJP holds 6 Vidhan Sabha seat out of 8, while only two Vidhan Sabha seats are held by INC.
Seven Vidhan Sabha seats are in Chitradurga Lok Sabha constituency. Out of 8, BJP has sitting MLA only on one, and 7 are held by INC and has clear edge on this Lok Sabha seat. In Tumkur Lok Sabha constituency, BJP has a little edge over INC candidate only due to alliance with JD(S). Out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, INC has sitting MLAs in four, BJP has 2 and JD(S) has 2.
INC is far ahead than JD(S) in Mandya Lok Sabha constituency. Out of 8, INC had won six Vidhan Sabha constituencies in 2023 election. JD(S) has only one MLA from the region, while in one won by SKP the party was runner up.
Mysore Lok Sabha Constituency seems to be in favour of INC. Out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, INC has won 5, JD(S) 2 and BJP one in the 2023 legislative assembly election. In Chamrajnagar, situation is clearly in favour of INC, where the party had won 7 Vidhan Sabha constituencies out of 8.
In Bangalore Rural constituency, INC has upper hand over the BJP. INC had won 5 Vidhan Sabha seats in the region, while only 2 went to BJP, and on to JD(S) in 2023. BJP seems to have edge on Bangalore North seat, where the party had won 5 Vidhan Sabha seats, while INC could win only 3 seats last year.
INC is likely to win the Bangalore Central constituency. Out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies in the region, the party had won 5 in 2023 leaving only three to the BJP. In Bangalore South, BJP has upper hand, which had won 5 Vidhan Sabha constituencies leaving only three to INC.
Chikkballapur Lok Sabha constituency is most likely to elect INC candidate. Out of 8, BJP could win only 2 Vidhan Sabha seat from this region while 5 were won by INC. One independent candidate has won in Gauribidanur Vidhan Sabha constituency, but runner up was INC candidate.
Contest on Kolar seat is between JD(S) and INC candidates. INC has clear upper hand in 5 Vidhan Sabha constituencies which the party holds. JD(S) holds only three Vidhan Sabha seats in the region.
Since political situation in the state continues almost the same since Vidhan Sabha elections 2023, BJP can’t hope to repeat its 2019 performance in Karnataka, the tally will be much less. (IPA Service)
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