By Dr. Gyan Pathak
In the penultimate phase of Lok Sabha Election 2024 on May 25, BJP has been facing the most difficult electoral battle so far in Uttar Pradesh. This is the sixth phase of election in which 14 Lok Sabha constituencies are going to poll. BJP and INDIA bloc candidates are in neck and neck electoral battle in all seats. This phase is crucial for both the BJP and INDIA bloc, since their performance in this phase could make or mar the possibility of PM Modi’s returning to power at the Centre for the third time in a row. Out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the states, only 13 seats will be left to poll in the last phase of election on June 1.
In the first five phases of election, BJP had performed badly in the first and third phases, and the sixth phase may turn worst for the party, which has become a serious concern for the Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. If BJP performs badly in this state and PM Narendra Modi somehow forms his government for the third time, it would be almost certain that he will be replaced as Chief Minister as soon as possible, AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal has predicted within 2 months. Yogi Adityanath is thus working under a political sword hanging on his head. It is precisely because of this reason Yogi Adityanath has politically become super active.
In the first phase, NDA and INDIA bloc candidates were pitted against each other in 8 Lok Sabha constituencies in very close contests. BJP’s ally RLD did not perform well, and there was only one seat where it was seen offering some contest to INDIA alliance. RLD was ally of SP in the Lok Sabha election 2019, but it deserted SP to join BJP on the eve of Lok Sabha election. It irked party’s Jat and farmer supporters, who have been angry with the BJP on account of PM Modi’s denying legal guarantee for MSP for their crops. BJP had to face tough electoral battle in at least 3 seats where SP was aggressive while BJP was in the defensive.
NDA considerably improved its performance in the second phase in 8 constituencies which went to polls.. It seemed that NDA would finally be able to win all of them, though RLDs performance in one seat it was contesting lacked some vigour. Even though, BJP candidates were sailing smoothly in all the 7 seats it was in contest.
Third phase of election was somewhat devastating for the BJP, and in 4 constituencies its candidates seemed to be weak and struggled against the SP candidates. A total 10 of the constituencies went to polls in that phase, and BJP’s hope to retain the seats has already been shattered.
BJP performed very well in the fourth phase in majority of seats. INC candidate was giving tough fight to the BJP candidate in only one seat, while in all other seats, INDIA block candidates were seemingly weak. INC and SP candidates, however, improved their performance in the fifth phase when 13 Lok Sabha constituencies went to polls. Though their perceivable edge was felt in two seats – one each – their candidates were in contest in other seats, and it was not a clear sweep of the BJP.
But in the sixth phase of polling due on May 25 , BJP has been struggling in almost half of the 14 seats going to polls. Tremendous improvement is seen during the election campaigns of the INDIA bloc candidates. BJP candidates are seen struggling in 7 parliamentary constituencies. If they loose on these seats, SP will have 6 and TMC will have 1 seat in their bag.
The renowned psephologist Yogendra Yadav has predicted that BJP may win 50 seats out of 80 in the state, which means the party may lose 12 out of 62 seats it had won in 2019. He may not be much off of mark, since BJP candidates are seen having edge on only 47 seats in the first six phases of election, out of 67 seats including polling on May 25.
Prashant Kishor the political strategist, have not said anything categorically on Uttar Pradesh, but said if BJP loses 20 seats in Uttar Pradesh, it would not alter the BJP’s possibility of returning to power. To have any adverse impact on BJP, the opposition would need to win 40 seats. There is of course between the lines in his statement, which indicates, BJP is losing many current seats in the state.
How much seats then BJP would be able to win in the last phase on June 1? It is only a question of matter of conjecture, since we are yet to see the peak of election campaigns of NDA and INDIA bloc for the last phase when 13 Lok Sabha constituencies are scheduled to poll. Even if one is lenient towards the BJP, the party can’t be seen likely to win all of these seats, on account of SP’s stronghold in several of these seats.
In brief, BJP’s set a target of winning 74 seats for itself, and 4 seats for its allies seems to be an impossibility to realise. BJP itself is contesting 74 seats, and its ally NISHAD is contesting on 1 seat, but on BJP’s symbol. Apna Dal (Sonelal) is contesting 2, RLD 2, and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) at 1 seat.
As the election trend so far suggests, BJP is running a risk of failing to retain even its 62 Lok Sabha seats that it had won in 2019. A risk of losing 6-12 seats seems to have ultimately emerged, that has greatly alarmed the PM Narendra Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath, who have become more aggressive in their campaigns on communal Hindutva lines. However, the million-dollar question staring on their face, will such campaigns be politically effective in ensuring favourable results. (IPA Service)
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