By Dr. Gyan Pathak
With announcement of NDA and INDIA bloc’s candidates for byelections of all the 9 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, one can now see the chief contestants arrayed in the electoral battlefield, and also make an assessment of their respective strengths and weaknesses, the success or failure of which may decide the fate of Yogi Adityanath – as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, and also as the future prime ministerial candidate of the BJP.
After a humiliating setback of the BJP in the Lok Sabha election 2024, Yogi Adityanath has been facing rebellion from some prominent Pradesh BJP leaders who were seeking his head as a scapegoat for the failure. However, Yogi Adityanath proved his dominance over them who were indirectly being supported by some Central BJP leaders. BJP president J P Nadda had then said ‘no changes’ were to be contemplated until the byelections were over. He had actually betrayed the Central BJP’s intentions to see what Yogi Adityanath could do if given free hand to select candidates and campaign in his own style.
It is also worth recalling that Yogi Adityanath had blamed for the BJP’s debacle in the Lok Sabha election 2024 “overconfidence of the party leaders” and “repeating unpopular candidates”. The first allegation was targeted against his opposition group in state BJP, and the second allegation was targeted at central BJP leadership.
The byelections have now come, and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been giver a free hand in managing the election campaigns and giving party tickets. The result of the byelection scheduled to be held on November 13 would therefore be very important for the political fate of Yogi Adityanath.
BJP is contesting on 8 of the 9 seats while one seat is given to NDA ally the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Ramvir Singh Thakur has been given ticket from the Kundarki, Sanjeev Sharma from Ghaziabad, SurendraDiler from Khair (SC), Anujesh Yadav from Karhal, Deepak Patel from Phulpur, Dharmraj Nishad from Katehari, Suchismita Maurya from Majhawan, and Suresh Awasthi from Sisamau.
Out of these – BJP had won Phulpur, Ghaziabad and Khair, while Majhawan was won by NDA ally the NISHAD Party. Since BJP is contesting in these seats, the party will be battling hard against the Samajwadi Party candidates to retain these. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has been the rising star since the Lok Sabha election 2024, the morale of its rank and file seen very high even on these seats who are trying their best to wrest these seats from the BJP.
As for the BJP’s ally in NDA RLD is concerned, it has fielded Mithilesh Pal from Meerapur. RLD had won this assembly seat even in 2022 Vidhan Sabha general election. This seat was vacated by the sitting MLA Chandan Chauhan after being elected to the Lok Sabha.
Not only Meerapur, but 8 assemblies going for byelection on November 13, bypolls were necessitated due to the sitting MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha and vacated the seats. Byelection on the Sisamau seat has been necessitated due to disqualification of Samajwadi Party MLA Irfan Solanki for being convicted in a criminal case.
The Election Commission of India did not announce byelection for Milkipur Vidhan Sabha Constituency due to a court case.
The opposition Samajwadi Party has announced its candidates on all 9 seats and Congress is not contesting. As INDIA bloc’s major constituent, Congress is just supporting the Samajwadi Party candidates. Therefore, it is obvious, that any loss or gain will be the direct loss or gain of the Samajwadi Party and its Supremo Akhilesh Yadav.
Samajwadi Party candidates are – Tej Pratap Yadav from Karhal, Naseem Solanki from Sisamau, Mustafa Siddiqui from Phulpur, Shobhawati Verma from Katehari, Jyoti Bind from Majhwan, Sumbul Rana from Merapur, Singh Raj Jatav from Ghaziabad, Charu Kain from Khair, and Mohammed Rizwan from Kundaraki.
Out of the 9 seats going for byelection, four – Sisamau, Katehar, Karhal and Kundarki – were won by Samajwadi Party in 2022 Vidhan Sabha Election. It is therefore, retaining these four seats are of utmost importance for the Samajwadi Party and the INDIA bloc. Not only that, winning any of the other 5 seats currently held by NDA allies will signal the further rise of Samajwadi Party and INDIA bloc.
In contrast, BJP has not only to retain its 3 seats it had won in 2022, but it has to retain the seat its ally NISHAD party had won, and now being contested by the BJP. Any loss on these seats would signal the BJP’s further downhill political journey in Uttar Pradesh. BJP needs not only to win these seats but also to snatch the four sitting seats of Samajwadi Party to prove that BJP has regained their lost ground.
However, the problem for the BJP is that the detractors of Yogi Adityanath from within the BJP are still active, since they view these byelections as opportunity to clip Yogi’s political worth in Uttar Pradesh and among the BJP’s Central leadership. Even though, if Yogi succeeds in retaining the four seats, and helps RLD win the single seat it is contesting, he will re-emerge as an irresistible force in the BJP, and a threat to the clout of PM Narendra Modi as a future prime ministerial candidate. (IPA Service)
