Global markets risk downplaying geopolitical tensions, IMF warns

The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns that global markets are underestimating the potential economic impact of geopolitical tensions. Amid signs of improving economic stability, especially as global disinflation enters its final stages, the IMF has identified several medium-term risks that could significantly disrupt financial markets. According to its latest Global Financial Stability Report, while short-term global financial stability risks have receded, major vulnerabilities persist.

The IMF’s warning comes at a time when many market participants are hopeful about the prospects of a “soft landing” for the global economy, aided by disinflation and easing monetary policies. Emerging markets have shown resilience, and international debt issuance has picked up in some frontier economies. Despite these optimistic signs, there are concerns that the financial system remains fragile, especially in light of potential external shocks.

One of the key areas flagged by the IMF is the growing strain in the commercial real estate sector. Rising interest rates over the past year have exposed vulnerabilities within the sector, and further shocks could worsen these conditions. The IMF also points to signs of credit deterioration among corporations, which could intensify if adverse economic conditions continue.

The report highlights that geopolitical tensions remain a significant factor that global markets may be neglecting. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and ongoing trade disputes between major economies, present long-term threats that could disrupt financial systems worldwide. These risks are further compounded by cyber threats, which the IMF notes have been on the rise. Although no major systemic disruptions have been caused by cyber incidents so far, the increasing probability of severe cyberattacks poses a looming threat to global macroeconomic stability.

In addition to geopolitical and cyber risks, the IMF underscores the vulnerability of the corporate credit market, which has expanded rapidly in recent years. This market, particularly in private credit, now rivals more traditional forms of lending, including commercial banking. While private credit markets have served as an important source of capital for mid-sized firms, they are also exposed to higher risks. A sudden downturn in economic conditions or a sharp increase in interest rates could leave many of these firms struggling to meet their debt obligations, creating ripple effects throughout the global financial system.

While the IMF acknowledges the progress made in global disinflation and the efforts of central banks to maintain stability, it is urging policymakers and financial institutions to remain vigilant. The report recommends that governments and central banks continue to assess and address medium-term risks while maintaining a focus on geopolitical and cyber threats that could lead to severe disruptions.