By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah have extensively campaigned in Maharashtra on behalf of the ruling Mahayuti, and the Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and the Congress Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on behalf of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) the electorate in the state are impressed lesser than the local issues that they have been facing in their day-to-day existence. Political scenario at the peak of electioneering has therefore become very tense with a prospect of closer contest than earlier expected in the poll scheduled for November 20.
Why the local issues became more prominent than the issues like Hindu consolidation of votes? One of the reason the coalition politics within Mahayuti. NCP (Ajit Pawar) believes to have considerable support base among Muslims, and many of his supporters still honour Sharad Pawar and his NCP (SP). Since Central BJP leaders attack both Muslim and Sharad Pawar, Ajit Pawar believes that such rhetoric may damage his party. That is why, he even has signalled that BJP leaders should not campaign in such a way in the constituencies his party is contesting.
Then there has been a rift between the two deputy Chief Ministers – Ajit Pawar and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis. Both wanted upper hand in local politics. Within BJP, Fadnavis have felt humiliation on several occasions, which irked him and his authority somewhat waned. RSS has tried to help him out of the local political rivalry among the groups in BJP.
As for Shiv Sena (Shinde) is concerned, it has no national aspiration so far. It depends almost entirely on local political issues. It should also be noted that Shiv Sena, as such has been itself a local phenomenon, and even after split, Shinde needs to have upper hand in local politics over Shiv Sena (UBT). Shiv Sena (UBT) also has been struggling locally to have fresh recognition as real Shiv Sena.
The contest is chiefly between Mahayuti and MVA, but the problem with both the alliances is that they are not completely united, even when election campaigns are nearing to an end on November 18. In this respect, Mahayuti is more divided than the MVA, if the friendly contests on seats among the alliance parties are of any indication. In MVA, there are 15 seats on which there are friendly contests between the alliance parties’ candidates while this number in 21. Mahayuti is not contesting in 2 seat and supporting MNS candidates.
BJP, the biggest party in Mahayuti, is contesting on 141 seats in 288-member Vidhan Sabha, but the party is also in friendly contests in 4 seats with alliance partners. Shiv Sena (Shinde) is contesting on 75 seats and in another 6 they are in friendly contests. NCP (Ajit Pawar) is contesting on 50 seats and on another 9 they are in friendly contests. JSS is contesting on 3, RYSP on 2 and RSVA on 1 seat. The number of friendly contests show that NCP (Ajit Pawar) is in greater trouble, followed by Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the BJP.
Among MVA or INDIA allies, Congress is contesting largest number of 102 seat, but on 2 seats they are in friendly contest with allies’ candidates. Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting on 90 seats and on other 2 in friendly contests while these numbers are 85 and 1 respectively for NCP (Sharad Pawar), 3 and 2 for PWPI, 2 and 1 for CPI(M), 2 and 7 for SP. CPI is contesting on 1 seat.
BJP is in direct contestson75 seats with INC, on 31 seats with Shiv Sena (UBT), and on 40 seats with NCP (Sharad Pawar). BJP is facing direct contest with non-MVA opposition on 3 seats.
Another Mahayuti party Shiv Sena (Shinde) is in direct contests with INC on 15 seats, with Shiv Sena (UBT) on 50 seats, and with NCP (SP) on 8 seats. It goes without saying that Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT) are facing a challenge posed by each other to prove which of them are real Shiv Sena.
Similar is the case with NCP (Ajit Pawar) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) who are in direct contests in as many as 38 seats. NCP (Ajit Pawar) is in direct contest with INC only on 7 and with Shiv Sena (UBT) on only 6 seats.
Mahayuti is banking chiefly on women’s votes on the strength of Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojna, while the Marathas seem to be solidly behind the MVA, apart from other local issues of the various regions in the state.
The dominance of the local issues in these elections have also been seen among the nation parties such as the Congress and the BJP. Even BJP seems to be relying more on the welfare schemes for the state launched in Mahayuti rule. Congress leaders of different regions have also been concentrating on local issues such as farmer’s sufferings and joblessness among youths.
Reservation for OBCs is an important issue, especially on Marathas’ demand for the same. Maratha leaders are angry with the BJP, and supporting the MVA, especially after Jarange Patil’s sudden move to withdraw his candidates. Local issues have emerged dominating factors under which several groups of voters from both sides are like to switch over to other, making the political outcome highly unpredictable. (IPA Service)
