The World Bank has adjusted its economic growth forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, citing heightened uncertainties stemming from the ongoing Gaza conflict. This revised outlook reflects the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on the economic stability of nations within the region.
In its latest report, the World Bank projected that MENA’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2024, a decrease from its previous estimate of 3.1%. This downgrade highlights the fragile state of the region’s recovery amid escalating conflicts and rising inflation. The report emphasizes that the disruption caused by the Gaza war could have ripple effects across the region, particularly affecting trade, investment, and tourism.
Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to demonstrate more resilience, with projected growth rates of around 4.1%. However, the report notes that even these nations may not be immune to the broader economic downturn. With a notable dependency on global oil prices, any fluctuations could hinder growth potential. The World Bank attributes the GCC’s relative strength to high oil revenues, which are supporting government spending and infrastructure development.
The impact of the Gaza conflict is significant for several reasons. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has raised concerns about stability in neighboring countries, which could lead to an influx of refugees and strain public services. Additionally, the ongoing conflict has prompted discussions about energy security in the region, particularly given Europe’s efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.
Analysts also point to the potential for increased military spending in response to the conflict, which could divert resources from social and economic development initiatives. Such shifts in government spending could hinder long-term growth prospects for nations striving to diversify their economies away from oil dependency.
Tourism, a critical sector for many MENA economies, particularly in the Levant and North Africa, is facing headwinds as well. The Gaza conflict has raised travel advisories from various countries, impacting visitor numbers and spending. Countries such as Egypt and Jordan, which rely heavily on tourism, are expected to see a decline in revenues. The report indicates that the tourism sector’s recovery may lag behind other industries, affecting job creation and economic stability in these nations.
The region faces persistent challenges related to inflation and food security. Rising global commodity prices, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions from the Ukraine conflict, are contributing to higher living costs. Many MENA countries are grappling with food inflation, which has emerged as a significant issue for households, particularly in countries with already high poverty rates.
The report identifies key players who are likely to shape the region’s economic landscape. Saudi Arabia, with its Vision 2030 initiative, continues to drive efforts to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The United Arab Emirates is also making strides in positioning itself as a global business hub, focusing on technology and innovation. However, the volatility created by geopolitical tensions could impede these efforts and delay the realization of ambitious economic goals.
Lebanon, meanwhile, remains in a precarious economic situation. The ongoing political instability and the fallout from the 2020 port explosion continue to affect economic recovery efforts. Inflation has skyrocketed, and essential services have deteriorated, leading to widespread discontent among the population. International support remains critical for Lebanon as it navigates this challenging landscape.
As the World Bank’s report underscores, addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts among MENA nations. Investment in renewable energy, improvements in infrastructure, and enhancements in governance and institutional frameworks are essential for fostering sustainable growth. The current geopolitical landscape presents both risks and opportunities for the region, highlighting the need for adaptive policies that can respond to emerging threats.
