France landed on Wednesday night once again into a deeper political crisis after a no-confidence vote brought down the government, ending the beleaguered minority coalition of the conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier propped up by the far right National Rally (RN) after only three months.
The no-confidence motion brought by an alliance of left-wing parties under New Popular Front was supported by MPs from Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, far-right, National Rally. A total of 331 lawmakers — a clear majority — voted to bring down the government. The defeat of Barnier led coalition was a personal defeat of President Emanuel Macron who defied the mandate of the latest national elections by not inviting the largest group in the new National assembly the NFP.
In the July 2024 elections, out of the total of 577 seats in the national assembly, the left coalition NPF got 182 seats, followed by President Macron’s coalition Ensemble Alliance 163 seats and the far right National Rally (RN) led by Marie Le Pen 143 seats.. The other right parties got 68 seats, the other left 11 and fringe parties got ten seats.. Earlier in the run off to the national elections in July, President Macron instructed his supporters to have an understanding with the Left in many seats to defeat unitedly the far right candidates. This was done with the stated objective that the far right will not be allowed to take over power in France. This worked well leading to the putting of the surging far right to the third place in the newly elected national assembly.
But soon after the elections, President Macron took an ideologically opposite l turn. Instead of opting for an anti-right coalition led by NFP and supported by his Ensemble alliance to run the new government, he explored the possibility of a non-Left coalition ignoring the people’s mandate given in the national elections in July 2024.Macron invited the Conservative leader veteran Michel Barnier to form the government with the outside support of the far right RN. From day one of the Barnier government, it was a prisoner in the hands of Marie Le Pen. It was known that the firebrand neo fascist will topple the government at her suitable political timing. She took the plunge on the budget issue and supported the Left sponsored no confidence motion on Wednesday night in the national assembly.
The Left coalition NFP has been taking a position against Barnier government from the beginning. They have been alleging that French president Macron has surrendered to far right and is only helping Marie Le Pen through his actions. President Macron has to decide about the next course of action. He has to work for the formation of a new government or he can allow the present Barnier government as the care taker government till the next general elections which can take place only in July 2025, one year after the last elections.
The Left wants immediate resignation of Macron and holding of early Presidential elections. But Macron has refused to resign. He will stay till the middle of 2027 when the next presidential election is due. But more important is that the 2025 budget has to be framed and it has to be passed in the national assembly. The Left is very much against the austerity budget as proposed by President while the far right is against imposition of new taxes on the people.
Barnier’s key task, which proved his downfall, was to vote through a budget for 2025 in which he said he would begin to tackle France’s deficit with €60bn in tax increases and spending cuts. But after weeks of standoff over the budget, Barnier on Monday pushed through a social security financing bill, using article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows a government to force through legislation without a vote in parliament. This sparked a no-confidence motion brought by the left alliance, and another brought by the far right leading to the fall of his government on Wednesday night.
President Macron this time faces a peculiar situation. His government can not pass the 2025 budget without the support of either the Left coalition or the far right. The Left supports taxes on rich and removal of austerity measures on the common people, while the far right is opposed to fresh taxes. Le Pen wants the government to act just on the lines of her mentor Donald Trump.
Le Pen wrote on social media that, by following the “catastrophic continuity of Emmanuel Macron”, Barnier, who led a coalition dominated by the right and centre, “could only fail”. She said she was “protecting and defending” her party’s 11 million voters, who she said were deeply concerned about the cost of living.
For President Macron, the problem is that if the national assembly does not pass its 2025 budget by December 20, the government can propose emergency legislation to take care of the spending till the new government takes over after July 2025. But where is the guarantee that the new government will not be facing the same problem as it is faced with now?
Le Pen has a roadmap. She thinks that the present political crisis has helped her in improving her political base at the cost of the President Macron’s party. The far right wants to get a good part of the eroding popular base of Macron and then she will be facing the next presidential elections. According to her analysis, the Left and Macron can not work together so a new alternative without far right support is not possible.
But the political observers say that this is the right time for President Macron to allow the NFP to form the new government with the support from his Ensemble Alliance. That is the only option now to have a stable pro-people government. Otherwise, the continuing crisis will only help the far right Le Pen in progressing further in her goal of achieving power in France. (IPA Service)
