By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Regular workers’ real wages have been declining by one per cent every year under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s regime. However, BJP’s election manifesto and Modi’s guarantees have left this issue untouched, and used the word “wages” only twice, while giving the guarantee of periodic review of national floor wages. There is no guarantee of protection from declining real wages.
International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Instituted for Human Development (IHD) has calculated in their recently published study that over the decade until 2022, the average monthly real earnings of salaried workers in India declined by 1 per cent every year (CAGR) since 2012. Regular monthly real wage in 2012 was Rs 12,100 which came down to Rs 11,155 in 2019, and Rs 10,925 in 2022. The decline was 1.2 per cent yearly upto 2019, and then 0.7 per cent as of 2022. In 2023, the average monthly real wage for adults further declined to Rs 10,790.
Similarly, the average monthly real earnings of self-employed individuals declined annually by 0.8 per cent, from 7,017 rupees in 2019 to 6,843 rupees in 2022. In 2023, earnings of self-employed have marginally increased to Rs 7,060. The average real monthly earnings of casual workers increased by 2.4 per cent annually, from 3,701 rupees in 2012 to 4,364 rupees in 2019, and by 2.6 per cent annually, to 4,712 rupees in 2022. However their earnings have declined to Rs 4671 in 2023.
The declining real earnings of regular salaried workers and the self-employed, along with only a small increase in real wages for casual workers in India, indicates that the quality of employment generation was poor between 2000 and 2022.
The average real monthly earnings for both youths and adults engaged in regular salaried work and self-employment remained nearly stable or declined between 2012 and 2022, whereas the average real wages of those involved in casual work had a small increase. This trend underscores a high incidence of low earnings and low-paying employment among youths in the labour market.
There was annual growth in real monthly earnings for youths in regular employment, of 0.4 per cent, between 2012 and 2022, while average earnings for adults experienced a negative annual growth, at -1.6 per cent, over the same period. Likewise, average real earnings in self-employment for both youths and adults showed negative growth, at -0.7 per cent and -0.4 per cent annually. But monthly earnings in casual work grew at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent for youths and 2.4per cent for adults over the same period.
There was a gender gap in real earnings for youths in casual work, but it narrowed over the years. Female youths’ real earnings and wages in self-employment and casual work declined, ‘while male youths’ real earnings in self-employment increased marginally and real wages in casual work remained stable. The real earnings for regular salaried workers declined for both men and women between 2022 and 2023. Female youth casual workers’ real earning declined from Rs 3374 monthly in 2022 to Rs 3,017 per month in 2023, regular workers’ from Rs 9,281 to Rs 8193, and self-employed from Rs 2,546 to Rs 2363. The gender gap was very wide in 2023, when male youth casual workers earned Rs 5345. Regular male workers were earning Rs 7913 in 2023, which was less than female youths. Self-employed males were earning Rs 7082 per month in 2023.
Modi government can’t deny this data since these data are taken from government data only, including the Periodical Labour Force Surveys (PLFS). “While wages of casual labourers maintained a modest upward trend during 2012–22, real wages of regular workers either remained stagnant or declined. Self-employed real earnings also declined after 2019. Overall, wages have remained low. As much as 62 percent of the unskilled casual agriculture workers and 70 per cent of such workers in the construction sector at the all-India level did not receive the prescribed daily minimum wages in 2022,” the India Employment Report 2024 has stated.
In 2022, regular workers earned an average of 19,010 rupees per month, followed by self-employed individuals earning 11,973 rupees and casual workers earning 8,267 rupees. As against Rs 20,033 per month earning for male regular workers, self-employed male workers earned Rs 13,386 and casual male workers earned Rs 9,086 only. For female workers these figures were Rs 15,398, Rs 5,424, and Rs 5,548 respectively. The gender gap in the average monthly earnings was thus well pronounced, which has widened in the case of earnings for casual work and self-employment.
It is in this backdrop BJP’s manifesto has attracted sharp criticism from Central Trade Unions. CITU president K Hemalata has pointed out that Modi’s Guarantee does not even talk about minimum wages for workers, and even the guarantee of floor level wages given is not enough. The said that floor level wages to be periodically increased, but as we know the BJP government have increased it from Rs 176 to Rs 178 between 2017 and 2019. The manifesto even does not talk about scrapping of the four labour codes, for which the entire trade unions have been demanding. It means if BJP will return to power, it would be implementing the labour codes and the labour rules, and would attack on the basic rights of the workers. BJP manifesto has nothing for women workers, scheme workers, not even recognition as worker to scheme workers and their minimum wages and gratuity as Supreme Court has ruled. On the whole the BJP’s manifesto has left workers out.
Workers have therefore been campaigning against BJP and PM Narendra Modi in the elections, fearing that if PM and BJP return for the third term they would implement the labour codes which they fear may bring economic slavery for them, and would be compelled to accept lower wages on which their working poverty would increase further. They fear that PM Modi would implement the codes in the name of labour reform in favour of corporate sector and ease of doing business for them at the cost of workforce. Informal workers, who constitute over 90 per cent of the total workforce, fear that they would suffer the most if it happens. (IPA Service)
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