On November 5 late night, even before the presidential election results gave Donald Trump a majority of 270, former President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro wrote an ecstatic message in X the former Twitter congratulating his mentor on his magnificent win saying this will have a big impact on Latin American politics. Bolsonaro is known in Latin America as the Trump of that region as he follows all his manners. He opposed vaccines and social distance measures during Covid period as a president costing thousands of lives in Brazil during the pandemic.
In a similar vein, Javier Milei the far right president of Argentina congratulated Trump hoping that this would rejuvenate the conservative forces in the region. He also campaigned during the last elections in Argentina as the protégé of Trump. Similarly, few other heads in Latin America including El Salvador speculated on the resurgence of Right against the pink and Left forces which are ruling a large number of countries in the South American region.
In 2025, a few Latin American countries like Bolivia are going for national elections. The right forces are inspired by the victory of Donald Trump as they are looking for big help from US administration for fighting against the Left ruled governments such as in Bolivia. In Bolivia, the problem is that the Left wing coalition Movement for Socialism (MAS) is split between the present president and the former president and there is no sign that this will be made up before the next polls.
Similarly, for Cuba also, the prospects are ominous. Trump won in Florida on the basis of the support from the Cubans who fled from the mainland. The new Trump administration will take tougher measures to Cuba compared to the earlier Biden administration. Some of the measures facilitating trade and tourism taken during the Biden years may be stopped and the economic blockade is sure to continue with tougher norms.
Now what about the Europe? The far right in Europe is in cloud nine following the victory of Donald Trump. The ruling far right parties like Victor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary called the win as ‘the much needed victory for the world’. But the far right parties which are not in power, but itching for coming to power, are getting ready to seize the new opportunity to facilitate their take over with Trump’s help.
In France, the present government is virtually run by Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right party which came third in the recent French national elections, but is now in a position to steer the government from behind with tacit support from the French president Emanuel Macron. President Macron disallowed the largest block in the new parliament New Popular Front (NFP) to form the government and virtually helped the process of take over by far right from behind. Every decision of the government has to be vetoed by Le Pen.
In fact, Macron is in a precarious position. During Biden years, he took an active part in European Union and NATO and talked of an independent Europe free from the clutches of America. He showed his disdain to Trump’s policies earlier. Trump has not forgotten that. French observers feel that Trump will be more tough with Macron compared to other European leaders. In France, presidential elections are due in 2027, Macron will not be contesting as he already has two terms. Le Pen is making all preparations for winning presidency. Only the National Popular Front, if maintains its unity and can expand base, can give good fight to this far right leader. In order to defeat far right Le Pen in 2027 presidential elections, a joint front of all forces opposed to the Right will be needed.
The situation of German chancellor Olaf Scholz is no better. He is running a shaky three party coalition. The national elections are due in October 2025. In the recent provincial elections, the far right AfD has made big advance by eroding the base of his Social Democratic Party (SPD). Scholz is however working for a coalition with the other anti right parties to see that the AfD can not come to power in any province. So far so good. But the SPD’s other leaders are apprehensive that Olaf Scholz is not the best leader to lead the party to the national polls. Trump advisers are also angry that Germany is not paying its due fund to NATO and is also buying Russian gas boosting Russian economy. With German economy ailing, the chancellor’s woes have compounded.
As regards Britain, the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sent a congratulatory message and he is not facing any fireworks from the new president at the moment. His problem will be that the right leaning forces within the Labour Party will be encouraged. As of now, the opinion polls show the Labour and the Conservatives at the same level. This means that within four months after the national elections in July this year, the 20 point difference has been neutralized. The far right party of Nicole Farage is growing. At the same time, the main rival Conservative Party has elected a tough hard right leader Kemi Badenoch who means business and who is eager to have best of relations with Donald Trump. Starmer did not get his honeymoon period after this year’s elections.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban will be hosting more than 45 leaders of the European Union in Budapest this week. This will provide them the opportunity to make an appraisal of Trump’s victory impact on Euro zone and NATO. The new NATO secretary general Mark Rutee is known as anti-Trump. He is in trouble. He said after Trump’s win that Trump’s leadership would be again key to keeping our alliance strong’. Ruttee is in favour of increased NATO assistance to Ukraine. At the last NATO summit in Washington in July this year, Rutee made some unsavioury comments against the then Republican candidate Donald Trump’s NATO policy. Trump advisers have marked it. He will face music from new Trump government, it is sure.
Overall, the situation in Europe, NATO is full of uncertainties. Everyone is thinking whether the President elect will move into action unofficially during the intervening period without waiting for inauguration on January 20, 2025. Especially worried is the Ukrainian President Zelensky. During Biden years, he did not get all he wanted, but at least substantial supplies of arms and equipment were made. Now what will happen because the Russians are advancing and soon the winter will start and it will be tougher to face them in war fields. Interesting Times are awaiting the global eco-politics as Trump takes over for the second time. (IPA Service)
