By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Unprecedented unemployment crisis under PM Narendra Modi’s first two terms since 2014, is most likely to continue in his third term , unless the jobless growth model is changed. Out of about one billion working age population, the number of people in employment has been hovering around 40 crore for the last few years..
Despite this frightening ground reality, PM Modi and his government officials went on claiming that unemployment rate has been falling. Even the government’s Periodic Labour Force Survey data showed unemployment rate had fallen to 3.1 per cent during 2022-23. However, the real time private data of CMIE shows unemployment has been hovering around 7-8 per cent.
During the campaign for the Lok Sabha Election 2024, when the unemployment became a key issue among the electorate, the Secretary of the Union Ministry of Labour and Employment Sumita Dawra made a statement that as many as 30 million jobs were generated in 2022-2023 and more than 110 million jobs were added in the last five years. It meant that Modi government had already solved the unemployment crisis of the country, since only about 20 million people enter Indian Labour Market every year. It also implied that the Modi government did more than required by generating 30 million jobs in one year.
Dawra had made this statement citing the provision figures from the Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS database for 2022-23, that tracks employment generation and productivity levels in capital, labour, energy, material and services sectors. It should be noted that Dawra’s claim was not supported by even the yearly PLFS data of the Union Ministry of Labour and Employment.
Here it is worth recalling that Narendra Modi had promised 20 million jobs a year during his election campaigns in 2014, which was never fulfilled, even as per the government data released year after year, but suddenly the Secretary of Labour in Modi government said last month in May that 30 million jobs were generated last year.
It was only in March, Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran had said that it was incorrect to assume that the government can solve all social and economic problems, such as unemployment. He had made this statement during the launch of the “India Employment Report 2024: Youth Employment, Education and Skills”, a joint publication of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute for Human Development (IHD), in New Delhi.
CEA Nageswaran had wondered what the government could do on the employment from “short of hiring more itself”, adding “in the normal world, it is the commercial sector who needs to do the hiring.” The approach of the Modi government on employment generation was quite revealing. It clearly showed that resolving the unprecedented unemployment crisis was not a priority for Modi government.
Former Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram had criticized the CEA’s statement that the “Government cannot solve the problem of unemployment”. Shocking if that is the official stand of the BJP government, we must boldly tell the BJP “Vacate your seat” of power. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge had said, “Our Youth is bearing the brunt of Modi Government’s pathetic apathy, as ever-increasing unemployment had destroyed their future. ILO & IHD report conclusively says that the unemployment problem is grim in India. They are conservative, we are sitting on a ticking bomb of joblessness!” He had also said that youth unemployment had tripled under Modi government since 2012.
India does not have even a National Employment Policy, though India Labour Conference, the top tripartite body in the country on labour and employment issues has recommended for one way back in 2013 in its 45th session. ILC reiterated it even in its 46th session held in 2015, thereafter, Modi government never convened its session. Modi government has yet no plan to bring the National Employment Policy for the country.
By 2017-18, India’s unemployment had risen to 6.1 per cent which was 45 years high. Now India Employment Report 2024 has portrayed a grip picture on the job front especially for Indian Youth. With this publication the country knows that millions of youths could never find jobs at all, many of them have become overage during the last 10 years of Modi rule, and even 90 per cent of those who somehow managed to find a job are informally employed, with 82 per cent in the informal sector. Self-employment remained the primary source of employment for 55.8 per cent in 2022, while casual employment was at only 22.7 per cent and regular employment at only 21.5 per cent.
During the election campaign, PM Narendra Modi has said in Startup Mahakumbh in New Delhi that India’s “youth have opted to become job creators more than job seekers”. It was an outrageous statement for the unemployed people.
The coalition partners of BJP in the Modi’s third term government must note what the Ex-CEA Dr Kaushik Basu has said recently. He had pointed out that India’s youth unemployment rate is among the highest in the world at 45.4 per cent. He has urged the government to take corrective measures to deal with this grave issue.
Despite impressive economic growth, unemployment crisis remains frightening both in the urban and rural areas of the country, a proof of a jobless growth model Modi government has been pursuing since 2014. Lok Sabha result denying PM Modi a majority in the Lok Sabha should serve a lesson to him, and also NDA allies in the government. Unemployment is likely to remain a key problem for the government. (IPA Service)
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