The 18th Lok Sabha elections in India begin on April 19 with polling in 102 constituencies in the first phase. The seven phase polls covering 90 crore voters out of around 142 crore total population of the country, will end on June 1 after polling is over in 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. The results will be declared on June 4 after which it will be clear whether the Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is heading the campaign on behalf of the ruling BJP as also the NDA, will be getting his third consecutive term after getting majority in the new Lok Sabha.
This writer has the good fortune of seeing all the Lok Sabha elections since its first one held in 1951-52 — initially as a volunteer for a Left party in Calcutta at the age of ten. This phase as an activist continued till 1969 all through the college and university days. Then from 1969 till now, the role has been to monitor the Lok Sabha elections as a journalist, covering the campaign extensively in various parts of the country. This time also, at the age of 82, I have travelled to Tamil Nadu and Puducherry followed by travels to Uttar Pradesh covering western districts. I can say with some authority that this 2024 Lok Sabha elections are going to be the one in which the opposition parties are having the worst level playing field vis a vis the ruling party the BJP. Even in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the opposition was placed better t in terms of level playing field.
The three ways the ruling regime has been destroying the level playing field of the opposition include squeezing the opposition’s financial resources, the Congress Party is the main target, using the central agencies the ED, CBI and the Income Tax Department against the opposition leaders and important people who give funds to the opposition and the third is taking virtual full control of the media, especially TV channels to propagate the views of the PM and the BJP and showing the programmes and views of the opposition in poor light. This strategy has been deliberate and its implementation began from the beginning of the second term of the PM Narendra Modi after 2019 polls.
Right now, national elections campaign are taking place in two other countries with large population.-South Africa and Mexico. South Africa is going to polls on May 29 and Mexico on June 2. The election results will be known in the same week in all three countries representing three continents Asia, Africa and Latin America. In both these countries, the campaign is in top gear but nowhere, the opposition parties have alleged any raids by the ruling regime against them. In South Africa, the present president Cyril Ramaphosa of African National Congress is facing a major challenge from conservative opposition. But he is campaigning as per rules of the game of democracy.
Similar is the situation in Mexico. The left wing president Obrador, better known as AMLO is stepping down to give way to a new president nominee as per the Constitution. AMLO’s acceptability is at its peak. The coalition MORENA is set to win comfortably. Opposition parties have the backing of big capital but they never complained of any undemocratic actions by the AMLO government.
The Lok Sabha elections and the sliding of the democracy index in India is a talking point in the West as also among the BRICS members. Narendra Modi initially got rebuke from BRICS members for his pro-Israel stand after October 7 war. Now, his campaign speeches and the arrest of the Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the ED as also squeezing assets of the Congress Party before the elections, are being noted with disdain by the political leaders of the BRICS nations. Prime Minister Modi who talks of India as ‘the mother of Democracy’ is being seen as a leader who is curbing the democratic rights of the opposition.
Many western political analysts are saying that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be the last free elections in India. They are not right. Certainly, the coming of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi again will strengthen authoritarian trends and may encourage the BJP and Sangh Parivar to go for Hindu Rashtra but that will not be an easy task. Indian people have that insight to exercise their choice in favour of democracy. They showed it during 1977 Lok Sabha elections. Much depends on how effectively the opposition INDIA bloc fights against the BJP. They have to fight this time with Do or Die slogan. Especially this applies to the Congress which is the main rival of the BJP in most of the states in Hindi heartland. The responsibility of halting the BJP juggernaut in 2024 Lok Sabha polls rests with the Congress.
Why is BJP Juggernaut riding so high in India before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the PM is talking of the slogan Iska bar NDA ka 400 par and BJP ka 370 par. The BJP propaganda machinery aided by big national media have been continuously spreading the slogan. The BJP has huge financial muscle power, well oiled RSS organization and large support from overseas Indians, many of whom are active contributors to BJP election fund.
As against this, the Congress is most disadvantageously placed amongst the INDIA bloc parties. The Party’s usual conduits for getting funds have got choked by the ruling regime as a part of crippling the financial resources of their main rival in the Hindi heartland. The Congress is starved of funds in many states and on an average, its capacity is one tenth of that of BJP in respect of spending per Lok Sabha constituency. These days, elections are held with digital media and other platforms of social media playing a big role. Huge funds are needed. The Congress is not in a position to match BJP in that area.
This is the biggest setback to the democratic process of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP has used the ruling government and its agencies to do away with the level playing field and cripple the main opposition financially. The other regional parties like TMC, DMK, SP and RJD are fighting in limited seats, they are organizing funds, but for the Congress, it has become an uphill task to supply funds to more than 300 constituencies being contested by the Party. That is the loose end which the ruling BJP is trying to exploit in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the process, Indian Democracy has been the victim.
The Guardian correspondent is right when the paper writes that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be most one sided in Indian history. Yes, it will be one sided in terms of resources and media support but not in terms of support of the voters. Narendra Modi is selling his unique brand of Hindutva nationalism mixing with crony capitalism and pro-poor economic programmes. This has some sort of toxic appeal. The INDIA bloc can only combat it with much better narrative which can relate to the hearts and minds of the common voters. Regional parties like DMK and TMC are doing that effectively, the Congress has to do the same in the states where it is the main rival of the BJP. Only Congress, Congress and only Congress can halt the BJP march through its high performance and stop democracy index of India sliding further. (IPA Service)
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